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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

per student, even when expressed in constant prices, have had a fairly universal tendency to rise over the past 15 years (12, p. 47) primarily because of increasing teacher salary costs. This finding should not be surprising, even though many education ministries have pinned their hopes on the maintenance of constant costs per student at the various levels of education. If wages and salaries are to maintain a given share of total income in the economy* and if teacher salaries are to maintain their position in the salary hierarchy, teacher salaries would have to rise roughly in step with income per worker. Whether in fact they have done so would be a useful subject for detailed international study.
What is clear is that in both less and more developed countries, the share of educational expenditures in both the gross national product (GNP) and in government budgets has been steadily rising over the past decade (12, pp. 52-63; 2, Table 2.16; 14). Most industrialized countries "have moved from a point where they were spending between 2 and 4 percent of GNP on education in 1955 (a considerable increase for many over 1950) to the point of spending between 4 and 6 percent by 1965" (12, pp. 52-53). The rise in educational expenditures in the developing countries has been even sharper. In the struggle to expand the coverage of their educational systems, a majority of the countries for which evidence is available have doubled or even trebled their educational expenditures within a period of only 5 or 10 years (12, Appendix 24). The result has been a sharp increase in the share of public educational expenditures in budgets and in GNP (see Table 3).t Most countries in Asia were spending between 1 and 2 percent of GNP on education in 1955, and no country was spending more than 3 percent (5, p. 21). The range has since widened, and though most countries are still devoting less than 3 percent of GNP to education, in some the proportion reaches 5 percent. In Latin America, the modal range of expenditure shifted up from 1 to 3 percent in 1960 to 3 to 5 percent 5 years later. The data in Table 4 may somewhat overstate the typical level of expenditure, since data are more often unavailable for the less educationally advanced countries. Nevertheless, the trend between 1960 and 1965 is impressive. Some African countries are now spending the equivalent of 6 percent or more of their GNP on education, if foreign aid is included. Some African and Latin American countries are devoting more than a fifth of the national budget to education, and although the Asian countries as a group cannot match this record, Singapore has been spending even more: 23.5 to 30 percent of the national budget in recent years.
*There is evidence that the share of wages and salaries tends to rise (13).
1'The data in Table 3 and Figure 2 arc drawn from the best available source of comparative international data on education (2). They are, however, subject to a variety of weaknesses, not the least of which is that the ratio of private expenditure to public expenditure on education varies between countries. There is unfortunately a dearth of intercountry comparative information on private expenditures on education.al-urban migration, in the multilingual character of the society, in the existence of polygamy, and